Understanding how species are expected to shift as a function of climate change is important for effectively managing species and habitats.Ĭlimate-driven range shifts are well documented and relatively well studied. Species shifts can also have feedback effects on the climate system. Range shifts have the potential to reshape ecological communities, alter ecosystem function and the provision of ecosystem services, and impact human health and well-being. Among the most significant and widely discussed of these changes are shifts in species’ spatial distribution (i.e., range shifts). This uncertainty is driven in part by high variability in biological responses to climate change : despite a range of commonly-held hypotheses supported by ecological theory and a solid empirical evidence base, many species are failing to conform to general expectations or are even responding in counter-intuitive ways. Such uncertainty impedes effective planning and decision making for conservation and natural resource management.
SHIFT EXCHANGE REVIEWS DRIVERS
We will account for study methodology as a potential source of variation.Ĭlimate change represents one of the foremost drivers of ecological change, yet its current and future impacts on biodiversity remain uncertain.
towards higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths).
We will also use multinomial logistic regression models to assess the probability that species are shifting in a direction that supports our hypotheses (i.e. We will perform a formal meta-analysis to document estimated effect size using the subset of available range-shift data expressed in distance per time (e.g., km/decade). Initial data coding and extraction will be completed by four reviewers and checked by a secondary reviewer from among our co-authors.
SHIFT EXCHANGE REVIEWS FULL
Articles will be screened in a two-stage process (title/abstract and full text) to evaluate whether they meet a list of eligibility criteria (e.g., presents species-level data, compares > 1 time period). In this review protocol, we propose to conduct a systematic search of literature from internet databases and search engines in English. We aim to answer the question: what is the impact of anthropogenic climate change (specifically changes in temperature and precipitation) on species ranges? Methods Here, we propose a protocol to review the body of evidence for commonly-held climate change range shift hypotheses at the species level focusing on observed latitudinal, longitudinal, elevational, and depth shifts in response to temperature and precipitation changes. Resolving this discrepancy and providing effective explanations for the observed variability in species’ range shifts is urgently needed to help support a range of natural resource management decisions. Yet, many species are not demonstrating range shifts consistent with these hypotheses.
SHIFT EXCHANGE REVIEWS SERIES
In particular, a series of commonly articulated hypotheses have emerged: species are expected to shift their distributions to higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths in response to climate change, reflecting an underlying hypothesis that species will move to cooler locations to track spatial changes in the temperature of their current range.
Among the most widely anticipated climate-related impacts to biodiversity are geographic range shifts, whereby species shift their spatial distribution in response to changing climate conditions.
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